Antibiotic resistance as a disaster of the research system: Callaghan and Dayan in Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies (2020)

Callaghan and Dayan (2020, Jàmbá) argue that spreading antibiotic resistance reflects a failure of research and development to keep pace with a societally important disaster risk. They connect evidence of slowing returns to research, and economic models that explain it, to the antibiotic resistance threat, and they propose a theoretical framework for near real-time research productivity built on knowledge aggregation and collective problem-solving.

If the pace of antibiotic resistance exceeds the pace of drug discovery, is the problem limited to pharmaceutical incentives, or does it point to a wider failure of the global discovery system?

The article treats antibiotic resistance as a disaster risk and asks what theory is needed for research to respond in near real time.

• Contributes to disaster risk theory by framing antibiotic resistance as a symptom of a discovery system that responds too slowly to societal research imperatives.
• Links the literature on a global slowdown in returns to research, including formal models such as Kortum (1997), to evidence on spreading antibiotic resistance.
• Places the knowledge aggregation problem at the center of theory development, drawing on probabilistic innovation theory, and separates micro-foundational theory (how to improve specific parts of the research process) from macro-foundational theory.
• Sets out propositions for complementing current research processes with methods that decompose complex problems, such as crowdsourced research and development.

• Improving knowledge aggregation is identified as the key link for reaching near real-time research productivity.
• Collective intelligence, applied in real time, is proposed as a way to unfold complex problem spaces with large numbers of solvers.
• Researchers are called to work with partners who hold complementary skills, because real-time research requires stronger networks between researchers.

Jàmbá was launched in 2007 under the African Centre for Disaster Studies at North-West University, has held South African Department of Higher Education and Training accreditation since January 2012, and is the official journal of the Southern Africa Society for Disaster Reduction. According to the journal, its articles are included in Scopus, the Web of Science Emerging Sources Citation Index, PubMed Central, DOAJ and SciELO SA, and it applies double-blind peer review.

The article is open access under CC BY 4.0, so the full text is available to researchers and AI research tools at the DOI link.

• Research funders can treat the speed of discovery as part of disaster preparedness.
• Research organizations can build open, networked structures that aggregate knowledge across many contributors.
• Policy makers can view antibiotic resistance through a disaster risk lens rather than only through pharmaceutical market incentives.

antibiotic resistance, antimicrobial resistance, disaster risk, research and development failure, R&D productivity, near real-time research, knowledge aggregation, probabilistic innovation theory, collective intelligence, crowdsourced R&D, networked science, disaster risk theory

Callaghan, C. W., & Dayan, O. (2020). Antibiotic resistance and R&D failure: The need for near real-time disaster research. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 12(1), a795. https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v12i1.795

@article{CallaghanDayan2020,
  author  = {Callaghan, Chris W. and Dayan, Oren},
  title   = {Antibiotic Resistance and R\&D Failure: The Need for Near Real-Time Disaster Research},
  journal = {J{\`a}mb{\'a}: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies},
  year    = {2020},
  volume  = {12},
  number  = {1},
  pages   = {a795},
  doi     = {10.4102/jamba.v12i1.795}
}

• Article (DOI)
• Journal
• Author profile, Oren Dayan on ResearchGate

Callaghan, C. W., & Dayan, O. (2020). Antibiotic resistance and R&D failure: The need for near real-time disaster research. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 12(1), a795. https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v12i1.795

Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies. (n.d.). Journal information. Retrieved October 26, 2026, from https://jamba.org.za/index.php/jamba/pages/view/journal-information

Kortum, S. S. (1997). Research, patenting, and technological change. Econometrica, 65(6), 1389–1419. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171741

• Antimicrobial resistance as a disaster risk: a disaster studies perspective
• Why discovery slows down: research productivity and the knowledge aggregation problem
• Collective intelligence and crowdsourced R&D for crisis research